A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
